Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Yesterday the UN released a report calling last month the deadliest month for civilians in Iraq since the start of the US invasion. Last month was also the deadliest month on record for US soldiers. That means, outside of the time Saddam was in power -- invading his neighbors and putting down Shiite uprisings -- last month was probably the worst month to live in Iraq in recent years.

Also, yesterday, (1) Kofi Annan said he regretted not being able to prevent the US from invading Iraq, and (2) a Christian Lebanese minister was killed (if two more die, the Lebanese constitution requires that there be an election, and Hezbollah thinks that it would win big in such an election).

Thinking things over, I will go on record and say that the Iraqi government is in much better shape than the Lebanese government. If the US did actually pull out tomorrow, the Iraqi government would not actually fall. But, without the US and without the intense magnifying glass currently over Iraq, we would see ethnic cleansing on an immense scale. Quite simply, enough Shiites would go after the Sunnis that in three years there would be no such thing as an Iraqi Sunni. Shiites outnumber the Sunnis by incredible ratios, and there is no way that the Sunni Triangle would withstand an assault by dedicated Shiite death squads.

Just something to remember while we discuss whether the US should stay or withdraw.