The
current word from the so-called experts who watch elections is that over thirty Congressional races are "competitive" and that the Democrats are more than likely to win the 15 seats they need to take over the House. That's hogwash. The Democrats may take control, but there's no way thirty elections are truly competitive.
Just like in '04, '02, the people most vocally upset about the government are the people least likely to vote. And the people most likely to vote are only upset the government isn't doing more of what's upset those other guys. Yes, 60% of the country dissaproves of George Bush generally, and in those thirty Congresssional districts over 50% of the voters disapprove of their representative as well. But well over half of those people will not vote. I'd be willing to bet good money that we're going to see voter turnouts of 25-30% in many of the "competitive" races.
In North Carolina we don't have any senators or statewide officials up for election. The ballot Paige and I will look at will have a spot for the US representative for our district, and a handful of city offices (like the mayor, and the school board). It's really hard to see anybody getting too excited over that ballot other than the guys who vote in every election. Sure, North Carolina is in a different boat than other states, but not all that different. Thirty states have a senator up for re-election, but only one. That means if a voter is upset at the senator up for re-election he may vote. But what if he's upset at the senator not up for re-election? I'm upset at Senator Dole, but she won't be up for re-election for four years. I'm not more or less likely to vote in the meantime, even if I'm planning on being first in line to vote against her when the time comes.
We're looking at a lot of local races, and the voters are going to be the guys who'll brave rain and sleet and hail to vote in a local race. But this fact will escape
many people. Of course you'd expect experts to realize this, but these same experts couldn't make a distinction between people old enough to vote and people likely to vote in '02 and '04 either (in 2004, Andrew Tannenbaum aggregated lots of polls together, compare
what those polls said before the election, to the
final results).
And the guys most likely to vote are the guys who trust Bush most on the War on Terror. Especially because the other side makes fun of the phrase "War on Terror." I'm pretty sure I know how my grandparents will vote. And I'm pretty sure they will vote because they are often poll workers.
Bush's speech yesterday was tailored to them and to the other reliable voters in the country.
By the way, this local elections issue is precisely
why Karl Rove is "a bit dismissive of the idea of themes for midterm elections" and expects "individual candidates [to] make the decision on which themes work best for themselves."